Article List



Fear Index rises to 16-year high

July 11, 2010 – The Fear Index has risen to a 16-year high.  As of June 30th, the Fear Index is 2.35%, based on M3 data made available by ...


Two Important Messages from the Fear Index

January 20, 2010 – The Fear Index remains within its decade-long bullish uptrend, so we therefore know as a consequence that gold also remains ...


More on the 'Sound Money Indicator'

April 13, 2009 - There is no doubt that I have some amazing subscribers. I received a bunch of emails regarding the new Sound Money Indicator (SMI) ...


A New 'Sound Money Indicator'

March 23, 2009 - The other day at lunch with a friend, we began talking about my Fear Index. He suggested that I give it a new name in order to more ...


Rising Fear Will Cause Gold to Soar

June 1, 2008 - In the early 1980s I began researching and experimenting to find a reliable and trustworthy guide to evaluate the precious metals. I ...


Buying Gold at $42.65 per Ounce

November 12, 2007 - Everyone knows that the dollar is losing purchasing power day after day because of inflation. Consequently, the practice of ...


My Fear Index Is Back

October 22, 2007 - On September 18th former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan appeared on the Jon Stewart Daily Show, where he made the ...


A Fear Index Revival?

August 7, 2006 - In November 2005 the Federal Reserve announced that it would no longer compile and report M3, which is the total quantity of dollars ...


Farewell Faithful Friend - The End of the Fear Index

March 27, 2006 - For more than twenty years the Fear Index has been a reliable and trustworthy guide. I invented it in the mid-1980s in order to show ...


Waiting for a Reconfirmation of the Fear Index

October 3, 2005 - All of the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place neatly and pretty much on schedule. When the puzzle is finished, it will ...


The Big Picture & The Fear Index

August 1, 2005 - The Fear Index is my most important analytical tool for evaluating gold. It's like a trusty compass that one might take on a hike. ...


Seven Decades of Thrashing Gold

January 5, 2004 - Seventy years ago this month the dollar was devalued against gold by 69% when the federal government arbitrarily changed the ...


Building An Ark

November 10, 2003 - "Predicting rain doesn't count - building an ark does." So says Warren Buffett. Long-time readers of these letters know ...


Heads Up - Before Year-end, Rising Fear Will Send Gold Soaring

July 7, 2003 - Within the next several months, the price of gold will soar. This past January I projected gold to reach $900 in February 2004. Even ...


The Gold Price for the Next 18 Months

January 20, 2003 - One of the most important things to do when managing an investment is to stay aligned with the primary trend. This principle is ...


The Fear Index at November 2002

December 2, 2002 - Gold failed to close above $325 at the end of November. As a result, I am concerned that the Fear Index may begin to break-down ...


The Time is Now

November 18, 2002 - Long time readers of these letters know that I am not shy about making my views known. In other words, when it comes to markets, I ...


Reviewing the Evidence

September 22, 2002 - I was recently given an interesting challenge. An Australian friend of mine named Laurie McGuirk, a hedge fund manager with an ...


Here's Number 5

June 10, 2002 - The Fear Index has given a buy signal. It is only the fifth buy signal since the US government abandoned the Gold Standard in August ...


Waiting for a Fear Index 'Buy Signal'

March 4, 2002 - The Fear Index is my most trusted model upon which I rely to establish gold's relative value. I report the Fear Index in each letter, ...


Another Valuation Measure

February 12, 2001 - Over the years I have presented in these letters several different, but meaningful, ways to measure Gold's relative value. Long ...


The Fear Index at 1%

Noverm 27, 2000 - Though I have not written about my proprietary Fear Index for awhile, I have not been ignoring this important indicator. I continue ...


Seeking A 'Normal'Gold Price

September 14, 1998 - The Gold price has rallied sharply over the past two weeks, and may have formed an important bottom. Though it is far too early ...


Measuring Gold's Value

September 22, 1997 - In recent weeks as the Gold price slid to test support around $320, the bears have come out with newer and lower targets. Some ...

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