Gold & Silver Valuations & 2026 Outlook

Here are my annual #PreciousMetals valuations I use to make decisions & my price projections for 2026, which may be helpful to you. They’re based on the principle that #money is #gold (natural money in contrast to man-made constructs of #banks and gov’ts based on #debt) while #silver is an industrial metal that can also be a gold-substitute b/c like gold, silver can be owned to preserve #PurchasingPower outside the banking system. Based on my estimates for 31 Dec 25 #gold & #FX reserves using IMF data, current Fair Value for #gold=$11,341/oz, using my Gold Money Index explained in:

https://amazon.com/Money-Bubble-James-Turk/dp/1622170342

Money can be over-or-undervalued just like the value of investments in your portfolio. Data points on chart show gold overvalued in 1960s, 1974 & 1980, but undervalued since 1984. Though now at the smallest undervaluation since 1990, follow the same strategy I’ve recommended since founding www.goldmoney.com  in 2001 – continue to accumulate physical gold by dollar-cost averaging until it again is overvalued, unless you need to spend this Purchasing Power you have saved. Otherwise hold it to spend or invest when gold again becomes overvalued. Valuations are moving targets based on how much central banks inflate national currencies. The Fair Value for gold on 31 Dec 2024 was $10,902. FV was exceeded in the 1974 and 1980 blow-off tops by 128% in 1974 and 162% in 1980. If the next top exceeds gold’s FV by 145% (the average of the two previous tops) then $16,445. But that assumes FX reserves are unchanged, & they are likely to grow which would mean even higher prices at the next blow-off top. The #PreciousMetals are not in a #bubble b/c they are not overvalued. The bubble is the #dollar b/c it is masquerading as money but is only a questionable promise circulating as #currency b/c of rhetoric, propaganda & gov’t force (laws).

I use the Fair Value of #gold & the gold/silver ratio (currently 61:1) to calculate the FV of #silver, which has demand as an industrial metal & a gold-substitute. There is about 10X more silver than gold in the earth’s crust & roughly 10X more silver than gold mined annually by weight, but their historic ratio is about 16oz silver to 1oz gold, not 10:1 as supply alone would suggest. The 16:1 ratio reflects the demand premium given to gold as a purely #monetary metal. Let’s assume the ratio fluctuates in a range between 30 (the ratio at silver’s 2011 price peak) & 20 to approach the historic ratio.

• $11,341 / 30 =$378 per oz silver
• $11,341 / 20 =$567 per oz silver

The Fair Value of silver therefore ranges between $378 & $567 based on gold’s FV. Time will tell whether these long-term targets will be achieved or even exceeded like they did in 1980 when the FV of gold was $325 (and way overvalued at its $850 peak). Silver back then nearly hit $50, which is a 17:1 ratio. At this ratio, silver’s FV in 1980 was $19 ($325/17), illustrating the extent of the then prevailing spec bubble led by the Hunt Bros. In contrast, rising silver prices now are being driven by demand for physical metal needed in solar, EVs, electronics, etc, not spec buying. A 16:1 ratio could again be achieved if silver’s #industrial demand continues & #monetary demand for silver grows, which it might do in a fiat #currency &/or #bank crisis.

Because of #currency destruction by govt’s & their #CentralBanks & the digital revolution made obvious by #Bitcoin, we are going through a fundamental realignment in the way we convey #PurchasingPower to buy, sell, save, or invest our wealth. This process includes repeating 1932/33 when people learned about fractional reserve banking & the difference between Purchasing Power based on promises vs PP conveyed by physical #gold & #silver #coin. The collapse of the fractional reserve banking house-of-cards caused the #GreatDepression. So the immediate question is whether the promises supporting today’s house-of-cards collapses this coming year, like it did in 1932/33. My #FearIndex is saying it might. It’s rising like it did in previous monetary disruptions & is at the level reached in the aftermath of the 2008 #GreatFinancialCrisis. We can’t predict how events are going to unfold, but maybe the obvious but ignored ‘bubble’ is popping as it always eventually does with fiat #currency. Gold, silver, & stock market charts of Weimar Germany, Argentina, Venezuela, or dozens of other countries in the early days leading up to their eventual #CurrencyCollapse are similar to gold, silver, & stock market charts today of #Japan, #UK, #EU & #US. To paraphrase Hemingway, fiat currency collapses gradually over years & then suddenly.

The #FearIndex is rising for the same reason as in previous spikes: #money & #banking problems. The #monetary metals – #gold & #silver – always rise during periods of monetary problems b/c people move their #PurchasingPower out of paper #currency and #bank deposits into the safety of tangible assets to avoid counterparty #risk. But now there is also disorder b/c fundamental changes are occurring. The post-WW2 order of institutions controlled by the global elites is ending not only b/c of tech advancements (as #hodlers of #Bitcoin know & remind us), but b/c the #CentralBanking model was broken when monetary discipline ended with Pres Nixon’s diktat in 1971 to “suspend temporarily” the #dollar’s link to gold. The harmful consequences of his infamous act have become obvious – the affordability crisis, growing poverty, income inequality, endless wars & huge sovereign wealth funds funded by soaring gov’t #debt, a #derivative time-bomb, etc. It’s time to #EndTheFed & return to money of the American #Constitution (gold & silver #coin circulating digitally & physically for those preferring 19th century currency), thereby putting people back in control of their gov’t as explained in:

https://amazon.com/Money-Liberty-Pursuit-Happiness-Natural/dp/1739851110

The above Fair Value calculations should provide comfort to those concerned about media reports warning about a bubble in #PreciousMetals b/c of their rising prices. In reality, #gold & #silver are not rising; rather the #PurchasingPower of #USD #GBP #EUR & all the other fiat #currencies is falling as this chart of #CrudeOil prices illustrates. It’s a log scale to show that gold & silver purchase more crude oil now than any other time over the past 70 years except in the pandemic when economic activity & demand for crude oil collapsed. Like then, crude oil is cheap, when properly measured with real #money. This abstract concept of wealth called Purchasing Power is the key to understanding money, which is simply the mechanism we convey Purchasing Power by using 3 different forms of #currency: (1) intangible promises based on #debt when moved through paper #currency or the banking system, (2) intangible promises based on #math when moved through the internet (#Bitcoin), & (3) tangible assets like money itself when gold or silver #coin circulate as currency, either 19th century hand-to-hand or 21st century online transfer of ownership with the precious metal remaining in the vault while the coin circulates digitally. When gold and silver rise, Purchasing Power that already exists simply moves from the hands of those who own fiat currency to the hands of those who own gold & silver. Rising precious metal prices do not create #wealth in a macro sense; they just redistribute existing wealth (held as Purchasing Power) from national currency to holders of gold and silver.

Based on the above & many other factors I consider when making portfolio decisions, and with #gold & #silver having completed a fantastic 2025, here are my expectations for 2026. The #PreciousMetals will continue climbing b/c of gov’t & #CentralBank decisions resulting in more #currency destruction from the ongoing erosion of the #PurchasingPower national currencies convey. Silver will lead the charge to higher prices b/c the gold/silver ratio shows silver is measurably undervalued. Further, the 2-tier pricing between the paper & physical markets & ongoing #backwardation will disappear as #China increasingly becomes the driver of silver price discovery as it reduces its silver exports to protect its domestic industry, repeating what she did with her #RareEarth metals exports. Silver is not in a spec bubble like 1980. My silver price projection is a function of the gold/silver ratio & therefore depends on what I expect for #gold. It has been in a #BullMarket since 1913 when the #FederalReserve was created & $20.67 could be exchanged for one gold oz (or 16 oz of silver), but here’s the chart for only the last 5 years. Once $2000 was hurdled, which approximates gold’s high going back to the aftermath of the 2008 #GFC, gold never looked back & this chart shows its climb is starting to accelerate. There’s a message here for silver, which has also now hurdled its GFC high of $48 & I expect will keep moving higher (just like gold is doing) & again reach the 30:1 ratio last seen in the GFC aftermath. Uptrends & downtrends are never straight lines, and there will be volatility in 2026 as gov’ts lean on #banks to ‘tamp down’ precious metal prices as much as possible to make their debased #currencies look good. Nevertheless, if gold repeats in 2026 its 35% average annual jump over the past 3 years since hurdling $2000, then $5833 can be expected in 2026. A 30:1 ratio puts silver at $195/oz as both precious metals realign in response to the emerging reality that price discovery going forward will arise from the supply/demand of physical metal rather than paper derivatives, enabling both precious metals to move up toward their Fair Value.

Best wishes to everyone for the New Year.

Tweeted 1 Jan 2026: https://x.com/FGMR/status/2006824895552868715