Blog

July 11, 2011 – Discussions by policymakers to increase the US debt limit are in the eleventh hour.  Sadly, so far the circus of intense political posturing has avoided highlighting the real issue. It is not the debt capacity of the US government that is of primary importance, nor how much will be cut fromRead more

July 9, 2011 – Gold closed in New York this past week at $1,541.20, which is only $15.50 below its all-time record high close of $1,556.70.  In other words, a 1% jump from Friday’s closing price will put gold at a new record.  It could happen this week. Take a close look at the followingRead more

June 14, 2011 – The solvency of the European Central Bank is being called into question by some brilliant in-depth research from OpenEurope.org.uk.  This independent think tank believes “the EU must now embrace radical reform based on economic liberalisation, a looser and more flexible structure, and greater transparency and accountability” in order for the “EU’sRead more

May 30, 2011 – Bull markets do not move in a straight line, nor do the price of gold and silver.  Their price advances, and then retreats to ‘correct’ the previous advance. For the past four weeks, gold and silver have been going through one of these periodic price corrections. During these corrections, underlying supportRead more

I am not a mathematician, but those knowledgeable about math have explained to me the difference between a parabola and a hyperbola. I’ll cut through the math to get to the key point. A hyperbolic rise in price is much faster than a parabolic one.

February 14, 2011 – Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one.  Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in JanuaryRead more

February 12, 2011 – In precious metal bull markets, silver outperforms.  Its price climbs at a faster rate than gold’s price.  The reverse happens in bear markets.  Silver’s price drops at a faster rate than gold’s price.  The following chart of the gold/silver ratio illustrates this phenomenon. At the peak of the last precious metalRead more

February 3, 2011 – An article today in The Wall Street Journal highlights the latest rise in the price of wheat.  Blaming bad weather, it notes that the “global wheat market is caught between freezing winds and a sirocco.” The WSJ therefore warns that “investors should beware of whiplash as weather normalizes.”  Given that wheatRead more

The rise in commodity prices over the past several months has been unrelenting. Equally unrelenting has been the stream of central bank apologists aiming to re-direct the blame for soaring prices to almost everything imaginable except the real cause, which of course is unrestrained money printing.

January 3, 2011 – It is that time of the year again to record my expectations and outlook for the year ahead.  But before looking at 2011, as always I first re-visit what I was expecting for this past year in order to evaluate whether my forecasts were close to the mark. My forecasts forRead more