Blog

The US federal government’s financial accounts end each year on September 30th. Last week the Treasury Department reported the government’s financial position for the fiscal year ended 2016, and it does not look good. I will ignore for the moment the government’s negative net worth, which itself means that the federal government owes more thanRead more

Thursday, June 23rd is the day voters in Great Britain will decide whether their country will leave the European Union, an outcome dubbed “Brexit”. The debate leading up to the vote is becoming fierce, and long simmering disagreements within the Conservative Party to “Leave” or “Remain” in the EU are now boiling over. Prime MinisterRead more

No one can predict the future, but charts can provide a useful roadmap to help guide us through uncertainty. Charts do this because they illustrate price trends – whether up, down or sideways – and it is always important to keep your investment portfolio in harmony with the trend. The following weekly chart of Bitcoin’sRead more

Yesterday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen roiled markets across the globe. Any increase in US dollar interest rates has been postponed yet again. As a consequence, it is not surprising that the dollar tanked, and gold jumped higher in a spell of <frenetic short-covering>. While Fed officials often speak in a nuanced way,Read more

In testimony before Congress in 1912, J.P. Morgan, the leading financier of his day, declared: “Money is gold, nothing else.” A century later a diametrically opposing view was taken by Wall Street legend Warren Buffett who proclaimed that gold “has no utility” and that “anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head” trying toRead more

At the beginning of the year, I wrote: “The financial system has become so abnormal, the Fed has to keep inflating to prevent the system from literally going off the rails. But the irony is that eventually the financial system dies as a consequence of accumulated inflation.” I then went on to identify three thingsRead more

The precious metals have been in a 2-year trading range. Though gold rose 10.2% in 2011 and 7.0% in 2012, these rates are below the 16.8% average annual appreciation gold has achieved over the past twelve years. Importantly, by being in a trading range, it is clear that the precious metals have refused to breakRead more

The US federal government spent $369 billion in August, but only received $179 billion in revenue. The resulting $190 billion deficit was a record for any August and the third highest monthly deficit in the current fiscal year, which ends on September 30th.

Money should always be separated from politics. Germany learned this lesson the hard way, and the Allies wanted to make sure for everyone’s sake that history didn’t repeat.

Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938) was a Russian economist who theorized that capitalist economies are subject to a repeating 54-year cycle, though I have seen his work interpreted to fit economic periods lasting anywhere from 40 to 60 years. Each “Kondratieff wave” is divided into four periods that are given the name of the four seasons. ARead more