Blog

February 3, 2011 – An article today in The Wall Street Journal highlights the latest rise in the price of wheat.  Blaming bad weather, it notes that the “global wheat market is caught between freezing winds and a sirocco.” The WSJ therefore warns that “investors should beware of whiplash as weather normalizes.”  Given that wheatRead more

The rise in commodity prices over the past several months has been unrelenting. Equally unrelenting has been the stream of central bank apologists aiming to re-direct the blame for soaring prices to almost everything imaginable except the real cause, which of course is unrestrained money printing.

January 3, 2011 – It is that time of the year again to record my expectations and outlook for the year ahead.  But before looking at 2011, as always I first re-visit what I was expecting for this past year in order to evaluate whether my forecasts were close to the mark. My forecasts forRead more

December 21, 2010 – Last week the British pound fell 3.0% against the US dollar.  Some say it was because of UK bank exposure to Spain, which Moody’s warned could be downgraded.  Others blamed the UK’s close economic link and heavy debt exposure to Ireland, which Moody’s did actually downgrade last week by 5-levels toRead more

So despite the fact the Fed will be purchasing $600 billion of US government debt instruments, T-bond and T-note yields are climbing, a clear sign that investors are rushing to sell their US government paper. Why? Because they know the purchasing power of the dollar is being debased by QE, and more importantly, will continue being debased.

November 17, 2010 – Iceland, Dubai, Greece – and now Ireland?  Will the Emerald Isle be the next domino to fall as a consequence of too much debt accumulated during the boom-years? It may be hard to believe, but Ireland is even more bankrupt than Illinois and probably even California.  Due to the serial bailoutsRead more

November 16, 2010 – Earlier this month the Federal Reserve announced its latest round of quantitative easing, long ago dubbed QE, but it should be called by what it really is – money printing.  The Fed buys US government debt and turns it into currency.  The process is somewhat arcane, but very simple at itsRead more

October 3, 2010 – Since observing in my September 22nd commentary that the US Dollar Index is “staring over the edge of the precipice and is ready to plummet”, it has been basically all downhill for the dollar.  The Dollar Index over the past seven trading days has dropped 1.74 points, or 2.18%.  That is approximately an 88%Read more

September 22, 2010 – The US dollar is staring over the edge of the precipice and is ready to plummet.  Rather than hand the dollar a lifeline, the FOMC in its announcement yesterday pushed the dollar further over the edge. The FOMC made clear that it is only a matter of time before the FederalRead more

September 20, 2010 – There is too much money being printed.  No rocket science is needed to reach that conclusion. The markets are giving us a clear message. For example, gold is trading at a record high, while silver has reached a 30-year high.  Those new high prices are happening for a reason.  The preciousRead more