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I am not a mathematician, but those knowledgeable about math have explained to me the difference between a parabola and a hyperbola. I’ll cut through the math to get to the key point. A hyperbolic rise in price is much faster than a parabolic one.

February 12, 2011 – In precious metal bull markets, silver outperforms.  Its price climbs at a faster rate than gold’s price.  The reverse happens in bear markets.  Silver’s price drops at a faster rate than gold’s price.  The following chart of the gold/silver ratio illustrates this phenomenon. At the peak of the last precious metalRead more

February 3, 2011 – An article today in The Wall Street Journal highlights the latest rise in the price of wheat.  Blaming bad weather, it notes that the “global wheat market is caught between freezing winds and a sirocco.” The WSJ therefore warns that “investors should beware of whiplash as weather normalizes.”  Given that wheatRead more

January 3, 2011 – It is that time of the year again to record my expectations and outlook for the year ahead.  But before looking at 2011, as always I first re-visit what I was expecting for this past year in order to evaluate whether my forecasts were close to the mark. My forecasts forRead more

December 4, 2010 – The scramble for physical gold and silver is intensifying.  People increasingly want to own the real thing, and not some paper substitute, all of which come with counterparty risk.  This conclusion is apparent from the following two charts of gold and silver forwards, which are based on data made available byRead more

December 1, 2010 – Both gold and silver demonstrated some spectacular performance yesterday, climbing 1.4% and 3.8% respectively from the previous day’s closing price.  November is the eighth month that gold has risen this year to generate its 26.5% year-to-date appreciation.  Silver has also risen eight months this year, and so far is up aRead more

September 13, 2010 – I am pleased to present the following article written by Mark Lundeen. He explains why the Barron’s mining stock average has outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials since 1920. The analysis excludes dividends on both averages, which in itself could be an interesting study. Nevertheless, his conclusions are thought provoking and worthRead more

July 29, 2010 – Much has been made recently of the news that the BIS last year completed a 380-tonne gold swap with an unnamed commercial bank. This BIS transaction intuitively strikes me as being hugely important.  Unfortunately, the BIS and the bank involved have disclosed too little information for any of us outside theRead more

June 1, 2010 – Numerous records continue to be broken by gold, including some longstanding ones that go back to the January 1980 peak.  Gold closed the month of May at a new record high against every major world currency except the Japanese yen. Various charts of the gold price in terms of major currenciesRead more

The IMF does not own gold; it owns claims to gold