Blog

August 31, 1998 – Something unusual happened this past Thursday and Friday that made me stand up and take notice. As the stock market was falling, the Dollar was getting trashed. The Dollar dropped against all the major currencies, and against the best ones, it fell hard. For example, in those two days the DollarRead more

August 17, 1998 – The Gold price and the general level of commodity prices are inexorably linked. The reasons for this relationship are hotly debated, but to me the answer is obvious – Gold is money. This debate about prices would disappear if Gold, instead of the Dollar, was used for economic calculation, namely, toRead more

July 27, 1998 – Beauty or beast? Either of these adjectives can apply when it comes to the stock market. At times the market is something wonderful to truly behold, to ponder with the greatest of admiration. At other times, the market can be your worst nightmare – like it was last week. A frighteningRead more

July 13, 1998 – By the time you receive this letter, the outcome of Japan’s election will be known. Up for grabs is the majority of seats in the Diet’s upper house. The election result is being widely viewed as a test of Prime Minister Hashimoto’s popularity, and therefore it probably will measure the durabilityRead more

June 29, 1998 – Investing requires taking action based on a calculation of probabilities, not certainties. And right now the probabilities suggest that the bottom for Gold has already been reached. By implication, we can conclude that a new bull market in Gold is beginning right now. Hard to believe? Well, yes, frankly it isRead more

June 15, 1998 – Mr. Miller was ousted, and Paul Volcker was rushed in to pick up the pieces. But the change came too late. The damage had already been done. Inflation had begun to surge. Not long after he was inaugurated as President, Jimmy Carter appointed William Miller as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.Read more

May 18, 1998 – A full contingent of European finance ministers and central bankers met on May 2nd to take additional steps toward the creation of the new European Central Bank and the proposed single currency for Europe, the Euro. These steps included the appointment of the ECB’s first governor and the identification of thoseRead more

April 27, 1998 – There has been in recent weeks a very significant and noteworthy development in the precious metal markets. Three of the precious metals are now in backwardation. What is backwardation? Does it help to say that backwardation is the opposite of contango? The terms backwardation and contangoare little used, and both conceptsRead more

April 6, 1998 – Ever since the Dow Industrials Average made a new record high in early February, I have been warning that one should play the market from the long side, or don’t play it at all. It is now very apparent what I meant and why I was making this warning. The DowRead more

March 23, 1998 – This week the Belgian central bank released a statement that read in part: “The weekly situation…was influenced by an arbitrage operation of gold against foreign currencies”. Were they purposely trying to be coy? Or do central bankers enjoy making these opaque statements that leave more questions unanswered than answered? I wasRead more