Blog

January 27, 1997 – It has become a tradition of mine at this time of the year to share some of my thoughts about the various markets, and to make some forecasts for the year ahead. I also use this occasion to look back at the year just passed, and for the first time inRead more

January 6, 1997 – An old Chinese proverb says that wisdom begins by calling things by their right name. It is possible to create a corollary of this adage that applies to the stock market. Investment savvy begins by accurately measuring the relative value offered by any stock. To explain this notion, assume that yourRead more

December 9, 1996 – We have a problem. It is not an easy problem to solve, but it is an easy problem to understand. It has to do with money, and specifically, the US Dollar. The problem is that the Dollar is constantly changing. The name remains unchanged, but not so a Dollar’s purchasing power.Read more

November 25, 1996 – Nobody these days has anything good to say about Gold. In keeping with prevailing sentiment, I won’t say anything good about it either. However, I will make some basic observations about Gold, and hopefully these obiter dicta will provide enough common sense to enable one to make an informed judgement aboutRead more

November 4, 1996 – In the last letter I noted the possibility of “one last upward spike in T-Bond prices to provide the markets with one last piece of good news before the presidential election.” We are getting that spike in prices now. I happened to be watching CNBC this past Friday morning after theRead more

October 21, 1996 – What will happen to the Gold price after the November election? Will it remain stuck below $400 per ounce, or can we finally expect Gold to begin a rally that will eventually reach my long awaited $500 per ounce target? No one has the answer to those questions yet, but withRead more

September 30, 1996 – I recently had the opportunity to meet Thabo Mbeki, the Deputy President of South Africa. A lunch in his honor was hosted in New York City by the South African Ambassador to the United States, and I was invited to attend with about 20 other investors/business people who had various commitmentsRead more

September 9, 1996 – Since May I have been warning that stocks may be topping out. Our attention was first focused on the NASDAQ, which took a nasty spill in June that turned into a ferocious rout by early July, and a 19.6% correction from peak to trough. Even though the NASDAQ has had aRead more

April 25, 1994 РOver the past few years I have become acquainted with a wealthy, retired American industrialist who has an interesting story to tell. To preserve his privacy, I will call him Andr̩, which is not his real name. Andr̩ was born in New York before the First World War to wealthy JewishRead more