Blog

August 24, 2009 – With the US still in a deep economic contraction with rising unemployment, why is the US stock market rising? The Pollyannas on Wall Street and the politicians in Washington would have you believe that the stock market is forecasting better times ahead.  I have an entirely different point of view. TheRead more

August 24, 2009 – The S&P 500 and the other major stock market averages face an important test in the weeks immediately ahead.  Please take a look at the following chart of the weekly closing price of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 broke down from its downtrend channel as the financial crisis worsened lastRead more

August 24, 2009 – Please take a close look at the following chart of the gold/silver ratio.  I have again added to this chart the red horizontal line at 69.  Note that this 69 level is again proving to be a resistance point. It is possible within the next week or two that the ratioRead more

Silver dropped into our buying area, but silver did not close below the level needed to trigger my buy recommendation. I think that we will get one more chance to buy on a dip toward support.

There is an important Comex option expiry on August 26th for silver, and then expiry for silver over-the-counter options will end the following day.

Believe it or not, but I think that we will get one more chance to buy on a dip toward support. There is in my view a better than 50% probability that the precious metals will test support one more time. So be prepared for another dip in prices this week.

August 22, 2009 – The XAU Index continues to make good progress in building support.  One of these days this support will propel the XAU Index above resistance around the 152-154 area, which is the same area of resistance discussed many times recently. In the last commentary I suggested that the XAU Index would probablyRead more

The US dollar is still on the path to hyperinflation. Here are the criteria that I am watching to confirm that the US dollar continues to head for the fiat currency graveyard. 1) Yields on long-term US government paper have been rising ever since the aftermath of the Lehman collapse. As a currency moves towardRead more

August 10, 2009 – Given all the euphoria after the unemployment number was released on Friday, one would think that the economic contraction had ended. Unfortunately, the euphoria was misguided. The reality is that unemployment continues to worsen. Non-farm payrolls in July continued the dreadful, protracted decline that began from the peak of employment inRead more

August 10, 2009 – I wrote the following 22 years ago this month. As the French say, Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose! Nothing has changed except the data, which I have updated in brackets so that I can make some comparisons in my comments below. “Full faith and credit. Bring these wordsRead more

August 10, 2009 – The Dow and other major stock market averages are rising because of the outlook for worsening inflation, and not improved economic conditions. The federal government is spending trillions of dollars to bail-out financial institutions and to meet the other spending aspirations of politicians. These dollars have to end up somewhere, andRead more